Monday, November 06, 2006

Take Off That Party Hat

For all those Democrats icing the champagne, here comes some ominous news, courtesy of the Pew Foundation Polling Machine, aka Pew Research Center for the People and Press.

Here the lead graph:

A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.

Here's the rest.


Anonymous phillydem said...

Seems CNN just now reported a 58-38 D lead. ABC-WaPo showed the Democratic lead at 51%-45% among likely voters. The Newsweek poll conducted during the same time period shows Democrats still ahead by 54%-38%. Time poll of likely voters shows Democrats with a fifteen point lead, 55%-40%.

But, nice try.

9:32 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anything that motivates voters to vote is OK by me. Find something that says Santorum is neck-and-neck with Casey and let's see who shows up tomorrow.

We need voters to know that their vote counts, and the wide spread between Rendell & Swann and the comfortable lead that Casey seems to have are not helping.

10:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

nice try? DO you know Tom? He hates to report this stuff-

10:08 AM  
Anonymous phillydem said...

Actually, I did met Tom when I participated in the Inquirer's Citizen Voices project 7 years ago.

My point is that there are 4 polls out now, including a new Fox/Opinion Dynamics Poll showing Dems with a lead from 13-20 pts. There are three polls out that show the lead from 4-9 pts.

The polls are all from roughly the same time so it would seem that the difference is the "likely voter" screen.

My guess is the Dem lead is around 10 pts.

12:58 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's a liberal media conspiracy to get out the vote!!! ;-)

2:59 PM  
Anonymous mikel said...

One poll shows a Dem advantage of 4%, while just aboyut every other one shows double figure leads, and we're supposed to think it means something?
Either the Pew Foundation knows someone's been playing with the voting machines or their populcae selection is suspect.

7:10 PM  

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