Thanks to all who participated in my "Be A Pundit" contest. I got more than two-dozen entries and lots of good guesstimating on the final results.
The killer for many entrants was the Casey-Santorum
race. It ended up being an 18-point blow out by Casey, but all my pundits guessed it low. The guy who came closest gave it to Casey by 14% .Rendell-Swann
was easier. The final result looks like it will be Rendell by 21-point spread. Seven participants got that 60-40 spread about right.
Turnout was the wild card. In 2002, it was about 3.581. I expected higher turnout this year, but never guessed it would be that high -- it was 3,997,000 votes, with 99% of the vote counted. I suspect it will equal 3.999 or 4 million by the time the official vote is counted. I had three entrants who came close to nailing it.
How did my pundits do collectively?
Well, on average we thought that Rendell would beat Swann 59.4 to 40.6, so we were real close. On average, we thought Casey would be Santorum 54.5 to 45.5, so were off by 7 points. As to turnout, we had it pegged at 3.810 – a good guess, but not cigar. It was 100,000+ higher.
Now, onto the winners.
Since no one nailed it exactly, I went for the three would-be pundits who came closest collectively to being right. Sound the trumpets. Here are my winners:Jim Shomper Jr.
He had Rendell-Swann nailed at 61-39
He has Casey Santorum at 55-45
He had turnout almost nailed at 3.935Jim McGoldrick
Jim had Rendell-Casey at 61-39.
He had Casey-Santorum at 54-46
He came closest to turnout at 3.940Neil Oxman
Neil was low on Rendell-Swann 58-42
He came closest of all the finalists with Casey-Santorum 57-43
His turnout guess was low 3.820.
As an aside, Oxman was the media consultant who did the Rendell campaign, which is proof that the worst place to get a perspective on a campaign is close up.
Congratulations, gentlemen, you each are winners of a $25 gift card to Borders (which I will expenses as "lunch with source') and a signed, suitable-for-framing certificate from the National Pundits Association.
I have several laurels to hand out to other entrants who were on mark with their guesstimates.
Marie Whitehead came closest to nailing total votes cast at 3.999. Congratulations, Marie.
Jon Bart came closest to Casey-Santorum with a 58-42 guess. Good work, Jon.
Adam Bonin & Sam Mee were right in there with their Rendell-Swann guesses. Adam was one of the overall winners in my May pundits contest. My compliments, gentlemen.
Thanks to all participants.