What's That Song I Hear?
Time to play Taps for U.S. Rep. Don Sherwood.
The latest Keystone Poll out today shows him trailing his Democratic opponent, Chris Carney, by 9 percentage points in Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District.
The problem isn't the margin in points. It's not impossible to make up the difference.
The problem is that voters in the district all know about Sherwood's extra-marital affair and they are judging him harshly for it. It's the issue that won't go away.
As Madonna told the Daily News: "The affair is the single driving issue in the campaign. You can't reach any other conclusion."
The poll, conducted by Terry Madonna's crew at Franklin & Marshall College had a sample of 384 voters and a plus/minus margin of error of 5%.
There is no reason for Sherwood to lose PA10 -- were it not for the sex scandal.
This used to be U.S. Rep. Joe McDade's district, but it was redrawn in reapportionment to extract Democratic-leaning Scranton and add rural Republican communities along the northern tier.
It is resolutely Republican in its voting habits. If anyone wants further evidence of the GOP being in trouble with the voters, the Keystone Poll provides it.
For instance, 40% of the district's voters give President Bush a performance rating of "Poor." Another 23% say it is "Only Fair." If this were school, that would average out to a D-minus grade. Not good.
In the gubernatorial race, Ed Rendell is ahead of Lynn Swann 50%-36%, with 14% DNK.
Most of the undecideds are leaning towards Rendell. He could end up winning by 10 points here. Astonishing.
In the U.S. Senate race, Rick Santorum leads Bob Casey Jr. 46%-41%, with 13% DNK. Again, most of the undecides are leaning towards the Democrat. Translation: Casey could win PA10 or Santorum could take it by a hair. The Casey name is known up here -- but this should be an area of the state where Santorum is king.