tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-257022392024-03-23T14:11:05.446-04:00Ferrick's PoliBlog 2006Rants & observations about government, politics & other human folliesTom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.comBlogger165125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1163590389700140742006-11-15T05:48:00.000-05:002007-04-09T09:43:23.230-04:00Farewell & Best Wishes<a href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/1600/Farewell.0.jpg"><img style="FLOAT: right; MARGIN: 0px 0px 10px 10px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/320/Farewell.0.jpg" border="0" /></a> Someone cue up "Happy Trails."<br />This is my last post.<br />With the election over, I am headed off to a new assignment. I will be working with Chris Satullo, editor of the Inquirer Editorial Board, on a year-long project dealing with the Philadelphia mayor's race.<br />When I started this blog in April, it was drawing about 140-odd visitors a day, some of them quite odd. In October, it was up to about 900 unique visitors a day. I offer thanks to all of you who took the time to stop by.<br />Things I liked about blogging: the chance to report and comment in real time and the ability to link to the good work of others.<br />Let's be honest, blogging is a parasitic exercise. We stand on the shoulders of the folks -- in my case, mostly political reporters -- who do the hard work of harvesting facts and offering analysis.<br />One thing I disliked about the blog: Most of the comments are anonymous. I'd prefer a system where everyone takes public ownership of their views, instead of hiding behind a curtain. That said, I rejected only a handful of comments, mostly because they contained falsehoods or were obscene. The rest I let flow.<br />Now, with a final bow of thanks, I depart.Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1163339678088150542006-11-12T08:45:00.000-05:002006-11-14T10:27:21.966-05:00<a href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/1600/Political%20Pundit.16.jpg"><img style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/320/Political%20Pundit.8.jpg" border="0" /></a> Thanks to all who participated in my "Be A Pundit" contest. I got more than two-dozen entries and lots of good guesstimating on the final results.<br />The killer for many entrants was the <a href="http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=24&OfficeID=2">Casey-Santorum </a>race. It ended up being an 18-point blow out by Casey, but all my pundits guessed it low. The guy who came closest gave it to Casey by 14% .<br /><br /><a href="http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=24&OfficeID=3">Rendell-Swann</a> was easier. The final result looks like it will be Rendell by 21-point spread. Seven participants got that 60-40 spread about right.<br /><br />Turnout was the wild card. In 2002, it was about 3.581. I expected higher turnout this year, but never guessed it would be that high -- it was 3,997,000 votes, with 99% of the vote counted. I suspect it will equal 3.999 or 4 million by the time the official vote is counted. I had three entrants who came close to nailing it.<br /><br />How did my pundits do <a href="http://ferrickspoliblog2006.blogspot.com/2006/11/collective-wisdom.html">collectively? </a>Well, on average we thought that Rendell would beat Swann 59.4 to 40.6, so we were real close. On average, we thought Casey would be Santorum 54.5 to 45.5, so were off by 7 points. As to turnout, we had it pegged at 3.810 – a good guess, but not cigar. It was 100,000+ higher.<br /><br />Now, onto the winners.<br />Since no one nailed it exactly, I went for the three would-be pundits who came closest collectively to being right. Sound the trumpets. Here are my winners:<br /><br /><strong>Jim Shomper Jr. </strong><br />He had Rendell-Swann nailed at 61-39<br />He has Casey Santorum at 55-45<br />He had turnout almost nailed at 3.935<br /><br /><strong>Jim McGoldrick<br /></strong>Jim had Rendell-Casey at 61-39.<br />He had Casey-Santorum at 54-46<br />He came closest to turnout at 3.940<br /><br /><strong>Neil Oxman</strong><br />Neil was low on Rendell-Swann 58-42<br />He came closest of all the finalists with Casey-Santorum 57-43<br />His turnout guess was low 3.820.<br /><br />As an aside, Oxman was the media consultant who did the Rendell campaign, which is proof that the worst place to get a perspective on a campaign is close up.<br /><br />Congratulations, gentlemen, you each are winners of a $25 gift card to Borders (which I will expenses as "lunch with source') and a signed, suitable-for-framing certificate from the National Pundits Association.<br /><br />I have several laurels to hand out to other entrants who were on mark with their guesstimates.<br />Marie Whitehead came closest to nailing total votes cast at 3.999. Congratulations, Marie.<br />Jon Bart came closest to Casey-Santorum with a 58-42 guess. Good work, Jon.<br />Adam Bonin & Sam Mee were right in there with their Rendell-Swann guesses. Adam was one of the overall winners in my May pundits contest. My compliments, gentlemen.<br /><br />Thanks to all participants.Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1163335516201394192006-11-12T07:30:00.000-05:002006-11-13T19:25:21.306-05:00Come And Get "EmPost-mortem's aplenty post-election.<br />We enter the what it all means portion of the proceedings.<br />Here are the highlights:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/state/all-a3_5swannnov09,0,5485903.story"><strong>Lynn Swann</strong></a><strong>: </strong>He never had a chance.<br /><a href="http://www.pennlive.com/statehouse/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1163050818231830.xml&coll=1"><strong>Rick Santorum:</strong></a> His own worst enemy.<br /><a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/P/PA_PENNSYLVANIA_SENATE_RELIGION_PAOL-?SITE=PAGRE&SECTION=NATIONAL&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2006-11-12-00-02-47"><strong>Bob Casey Jr</strong></a>.: A nice Catholic boy.<br /><a href="http://www.thetimes-tribune.com/site/index.cfm?newsid=17453631&BRD=2185&amp;PAG=461&dept_id=415898&rfi=8"><strong>Ed Rendell</strong></a>: Master of all he surveys (by the immortal Roderick Random)<br /><a href="http://dickpolman.blogspot.com/2006/11/i-hereby-nominate-06-winners-and.html"><strong>The Republicans</strong></a><strong>:</strong> Ruling party smackdown (by Dick Polman)<br /><a href="http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/local/15974846.htm"><strong>Pa. State House:</strong></a> GOP control hanging by a thread.<br />Sage-like Analysis: A post-election <a href="http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/local/15575072.htm"><strong>podcast</strong></a> featuring moi and Tom Fitzgerald ponders what it all means. My day-after <a href="http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/columnists/15965204.htm"><strong>column</strong></a> on Rick Santorum, which provoked lots of pro-Santorum emails accusing me of being intolerent of intolerence.Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1163333211861374832006-11-12T07:03:00.000-05:002006-11-14T18:01:37.770-05:00Back at WorkI haven't posted since late election night because my mother, <a href="http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/obituaries/15965245.htm"><strong>Dolores Ferrick,</strong> </a> died suddenly on Monday, Nov. 6th. I worked Election night and the next day, but took off the rest of the week to tend to her personal affairs and to the funeral.<br />Thanks to all those who offered their condolences.Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1162964468566731512006-11-08T00:34:00.000-05:002006-11-11T18:38:14.000-05:00Final Post of the MorningRendell-Casey murderlize their opponents.<br />Casey has a 19-point lead, Rendell a 20 point lead.<br />Voter turnout will be about 3.9 million votes - 300,000 more than in 2002.<br />Republican Congressmen who go down:<br /><br />PA4 Melissa Hart<br />PA7 Curt Weldon<br />PA10 Don Sherwood<br /><br />PA6 TCTC -- trending Gerlach<br />PA 8. I predict Murphy unseats Fitzpatrick in a squeaker.<br /><br />Back in the morning.Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1162962961145452092006-11-08T00:10:00.000-05:002006-11-08T00:16:01.180-05:00An Astonishing ThingAbout last night's election is this...<br />But, first the latest AP results:<br /><br />7,879 of 9,372 precincts - 84 percent<br /><br />x-Bob Casey, Dem 1,922,962 - 59 percent<br />Rick Santorum, GOP (i) 1,338,963 - 41 percent<br /><br />Governor<br />7,879 of 9,372 precincts - 84 percent<br />x-Ed Rendell, Dem (i) 1,970,457 - 60 percentLynn Swann, GOP 1,304,792 - 40 percent<br /><br />As I was saying, the astonishing thing is that Rick Santorum spent $20+ million and he is getting only 1 point more than Lynn Swann.<br />Santorum never broke 40 percent in the public polls. He finally broke it last night, but by one point. <br />It looks like the final Casey margin will be 600,000+<br />The final Rendell margin could be 700,000.<br /><br />On the congressional front, there is a surprise:<br />U.S. Rep. Melissa Hart, the Republican incumbent, has lost PA4. This was not a race she was supposed to lose.<br /><br />Here is CNN's total, with 98% of the vote recorded.<br />Updated: 12:02 a.m. ET<br /><br />Altmire 124,302 52%<br />Hart 114,707 48%Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1162957756978081122006-11-07T22:39:00.000-05:002007-02-20T21:04:04.913-05:00Tectonic Plate UpdateWith Rendell and Casey leading the way, with turnout higher than expected, the question remains what trickle down effect will it have for other Democratic candidates?<br />Well, it's early, but I do feel some trickle.<br /><br />Let's look at the congressional races.<br />In PA7 in Delco, Joe Sestak has handily defeated Incumbent Rep. Curt Weldon:<br />Latest AP results:<br /> TP PR Sestak Weldon<br />Chester 44 0 0 0<br />Delaware 355 197 53,976 42,934<br />Montgmry 48 25 10,420 6,379<br /><br />Totals 447 222 64,396 49,313<br /><br />In PA6, there is a surprise in early returns: Lois Murphy is ahead of Jim Gerlach in Berks County, the most conservative part of the district. No returns, though, for Chester County, which is Gerlach's base.<br />The latest AP results:<br /> TP PR Murphy Gerlach<br />Berks 106 25 8,963 8,418<br />Chester 126 0 0 0<br />Lehigh 1 0 0 0<br />Montgmry 101 17 5,778 4,152<br />Totals 334 42 14,741 12,570<br /><br />In PA7, another surprise. Pat Murphy holds a narrow lead over incumbent Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick in early returns. This was the seat most pundits (including me) gave to Fitzpatrick.<br /><br />Patrick Murphy, Dem 42,586 - 51 percent<br />Michael Fitzpatrick, GOP (i) 40,380 - 49 percent<br /><br />In PA10, Don Sherwood is going down, down, down:<br />The latest AP results:<br />355 of 530 precincts - 67 percent<br />Christopher Carney, Dem 65,154 - 55 percent<br />Don Sherwood, GOP (i) 54,091 - 45 percentTom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1162953602450837242006-11-07T21:37:00.000-05:002006-11-07T22:29:54.086-05:00Cool Graphic AlertThe folks at Philly.com have developed a great graphic that summarizes the status of the national races, plus local ones. Take a look for an update on the local Congressional races.<br /><a href="http://inquirer.philly.com/graphics/election_2006/">This page </a>is updated every five minutes.Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1162953185825628382006-11-07T21:25:00.000-05:002006-11-07T21:33:05.856-05:00Turnout UpDateThat wasn't your imagination today.<br />The polls were more crowded than usual.<br />Let me take Philadelphia as a bellweather. The city has already reported nearly 13% of the vote. If the trends hold, a total of 500,000+ votes will be cast in the city this election.<br />This would equal 52% turnout, which is about a nine points above what it was in the last gubernatorial election in 2002.<br />More to come on this as other counties report real totals.<br /><br />Here is the 9:22 p.m. AP summary of major Pa. races:<br /><br />U.S. Senate<br /><em>663 of 9,372 precincts - 7 percent</em><br />x-Bob Casey, Dem 130,997 - 65 percent<br />Rick Santorum, GOP (i) 69,617 - 35 percent<br /><br />Governor<br /><em>644 of 9,372 precincts - 7 percent<br /></em>x-Ed Rendell, Dem (i) 141,939 - 70 percent<br />Lynn Swann, GOP 60,281 - 30 percent<br /><br />These are statewide numbers, but they are heavily tilted towards Philly because of the speed with which they produce election results.Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1162951604685061692006-11-07T20:57:00.000-05:002006-11-07T21:06:44.686-05:00The Rendell LandslideNetwork exit polls indicated Gov. Ed Rendell will murderlize Republican Lynn Swann.<br />If the early projections carry through, Rendell could end up with a 700,000-vote margin over his GOP challenger.<br />The <a href="http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2006/exitPoll.shtml?state=PA&race=G&jurisdiction=0">CBS poll </a>carries no head-to-head numbers as of yet, but a look at the interior numbers hint at the dimensions of the Rendell victory.<br />The key -- as always -- is in the Philadelphia region, where Rendell is projected to win Philadelphia by a margin of 86%-12% and in the Philly suburbs, where is is projected to win by 69%-30%. <br />The strong Rendell-Casey showing in this area could spell very bad news for Republican incumbents lower on the ticket. But it is too early to say that for sure.<br /><br />For the record, according to the exit poll:<br />Rendell has a comfortable lead in every area of the state, except for the Republican "T" that runs up central Pa. and across the state's northern tier. Swann is winning this area 54%-45%.<br /><br />But Rendell is way ahead among women voters, who favor him 63%-32% for Swann. He leads among all income groups, among labor union members. He appears to be getting 21% of the Republican vote and 68% of the Independent vote. <br />The only sub-group carried by Swann in these early exit polls are evangelicals, who favor the Republican 60?-40%<br /><br />Again, no actual returns, but the exit polls show Rendell a big winner.Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1162949396295512542006-11-07T20:28:00.000-05:002007-03-16T16:56:55.693-04:00A Casey Blowout in PennsylvaniaUp live and blogging...<br /><br />CBS News exit polls give Bob Casey Jr. the win in Pennsylvania.<br />The networks are cautious about calling these races, so this means the spread is well above their margin of error.<br /><br />The <a href="http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2006/exitPoll.shtml?state=PA&race=S&jurisdiction=0">CBS poll </a>indicates a Casey blowout. Though the exit poll, as currently published on the network's website, does not give the head-to-head numbers, you can look at the interior runups and see the following:<br /><br />Casey is defeating Santorum in every area of the state - except for the Republican "T"<br />The exit poll indicates he will win Philadelphia 85%-14%, win the Philly suburbs 59-40 and win the Pittsburgh media market by 60-40.<br /><br />Other highlights:<br />Casey has a huge lead among women voters: 59%-40%, among all income groups, among labor households. He is currently getting 71% of voters who identify themselves as independents.<br />The only sub-group Santorum can call his own is evangelicals, who favor the Republican in the CBS poll by a margin of 61%-39%.<br /><br />Translated into votes, this poll indicated a Casey margin of over 500,000 votes.<br /><br />However, keep in mind that no actual vote totals have been posted as of 8:43 p.m.Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1162906218995592472006-11-07T08:16:00.000-05:002006-11-07T16:06:45.843-05:00Collective Wisdom<a href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/1600/crowd_of_people.jpg"><img style="FLOAT: right; MARGIN: 0px 0px 10px 10px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/400/crowd_of_people.jpg" border="0" /></a><br />I've been reading a wonderful new book by New Yorker writer James Surowiecki called <a href="http://www.randomhouse.com/features/wisdomofcrowds/">"The Wisdom of Crowds." </a>It is Sorowecki's paean to that much-maligned commodity called collective wisdom.<br />In it, he posits that the mass of people are usually right and that they are wonderful predictors of outcomes. In fact, better predictors that public opinion polls, that emit writ-large results from small samples.<br />Collective wisdom is the idea that drives such projects as the <a href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/Congress06.html">Iowa Electronic Markets</a>, where people place bet on outcomes of (to give one example) political races.<br />I have my own version of the Iowa market -- albeit with a much smaller crowd. It's my <em>Be A Pundit Contest</em>, where I offer prizes to the person who can come closest to predicting the outcome of today's U.S. Senate and gubernatorial race.<br /> To put it another way, I've got my own crowd and I've taken their bets, added them up and divided them by the number of entries to come up with their collective wisdom on the races.<br />Here are the results of that mathematical exercise.<br />We can check it against actual results tomorrow.<br /><br />U.S. Senate<br />Bob Casey Jr. 54.5%<br />Rick Santorum 45.5%<br /><br />Governor<br />Ed Rendell 59.4%<br />Lynn Swann 40.6%<br /><br />Total votes: 3,810,000Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1162900863356866862006-11-07T06:55:00.000-05:002006-11-07T09:58:31.276-05:00Rise and Shine<a href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/1600/Pennsylvania%202.jpg"><img style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/320/Pennsylvania%202.jpg" border="0" /></a>It's Election Day in Pennsylvania.<br /><br />As we saw in Philly, vote early and vote often.<br /><br />It looks like Republican weather. There is rain predicted for the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas, but it's expected to be mostly dry in the rest of the state.<br /><br />I wonder if this storm front was ordered up by Karl Rove, that clever devil.<br /> Just a thought.<br /><br />I will be blogging frequently today and will be blogging live tonight as the election returns come in. So, stay tuned.Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1162820214867393572006-11-06T08:33:00.000-05:002006-11-06T19:10:40.846-05:00Take Off That Party HatFor all those Democrats icing the champagne, here comes some ominous news, courtesy of the Pew Foundation Polling Machine, aka Pew Research Center for the People and Press.<br /><br />Here the lead graph:<br /><br />A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.<br /><br /><a href="http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=295">Here's the rest</a>.Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1162561428634518312006-11-03T08:39:00.000-05:002006-11-06T16:24:06.490-05:00Coup de GraceFrom Websters:<br />Main Entry: <strong><em>coup de grace</em></strong><br />Etymology: French <em>coup de grâce</em><br />... a decisive finishing blow : an act or event that puts an end to something.<br /><br />From the AP:<br /><div align="left"><strong>Sherwood suit deal described</strong></div><div align="left">By Michael Rubinkam</div><div align="left">Associated Press<br />ALLENTOWN - U.S. Rep. Don Sherwood agreed to pay the ex-mistress he is accused of abusing about $500,000 in a settlement last year that contained a powerful incentive for her to keep quiet until after Election Day, a person familiar with the terms of the deal told the Associated Press.<br />Sherwood, a Republican from northeastern Pennsylvania, is locked in a tight reelection race against a Democratic opponent who has seized on the four-term congressman's relationship with the woman. While Sherwood acknowledged the woman had been his mistress, he denied abusing her and said he had settled her $5.5 million lawsuit on confidential terms.<br />The settlement, reached in November 2005, called for Cynthia Ore to be paid in installments, according to a person who spoke on condition of anonymity because the deal is confidential. She has received less than half of the money so far and will not get the rest until after Tuesday's election, the person said yesterday.<br />A confidentiality clause requires Ore to forfeit some of the money if she talks publicly about the case, according to this person and two other people familiar with elements of the case.<br />It is common in settlements for payments to be made in installments and for the parties to be held to confidentiality.<br />Sherwood admitted no wrongdoing, a standard provision in such agreements, this person said.<br />Sherwood, 65, a married father of three who is considered a family-values conservative, had one of the safest seats in Congress until Ore sued him in June 2005, alleging he physically abused her throughout their five-year affair.<br />Reached by telephone Wednesday, the congressman and successful car dealer said: "I can neither confirm nor deny because this was a private settlement. If I'd like to talk to you about it, I can't."<br /></div>Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1162560211977968742006-11-03T08:18:00.000-05:002006-11-03T08:23:32.010-05:00Become A Pundit! Win A Prize!<a href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/1600/Political%20Pundit.15.jpg"><img style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/200/Political%20Pundit.6.jpg" border="0" /></a><br />Time is running out. Be sure to enter my Pundit Contest.<br />Pick the winners of the statewide races in the Nov. 7th election and become a certified Political Pundit, plus win a $25 gift card to Borders.<br />In order to win, here is what you must do:<br /><br />1. Correctly predict the winners of Pennsylvania's Nov. 7th election for Governor & U.S. Senate and list the percentage of votes each candidate gets. (For the record, the candidates for governor at Democrat Ed Rendell and Republican Lynn Swann; the candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat Bob Casey Jr. and Republican Rick Santorum<br />2. As a tiebreaker, you must also predict the exact number of votes, rounded to the nearest thousand, that will be cast statewide in the race for U.S. Senate, which is the race that tops the ballot this year. (For the record, there are about 8 million registered voters in in Pennsylvania.)<br /><br />Sample Entry:<br /><em>Tom: I want to be a pundit!<br />Here is my prediction for the Nov. 7th election:<br />Bob Casey Jr. -- 54% of the vote Rick Santorum - 46%<br />Ed Rendell -- 58% Lynn Swann - 42%<br />Total votes cast: 3,773,000<br /></em><br />The deadline is 11:59 p.m., Monday, Nov. 6th. Do <strong>not</strong> submit your entry via a posting. Send it to my email address:<strong> tferrick@phillynews.com</strong> Include your name and address.<br />The winner will be announced in this space at noon, Wednesday, Nov. 8th. The vote total will be based upon the latest Associated Press count as of 11 a.m. that day.<br /><br />Don't miss this opportunity to become a pundit. Email your entry today!Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1162476078287969202006-11-02T08:18:00.000-05:002006-11-05T23:35:17.920-05:00The Kerry Sampler of Botched Jokes<a href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/1600/John%20Kerry.jpg"><img style="FLOAT: right; MARGIN: 0px 0px 10px 10px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/320/John%20Kerry.jpg" border="0" /></a><br />What they wrote for John Kerry to say in Pasadena:<br />“Do you know where you end up if you don’t study, if you aren’t smart, if you’re intellectually lazy? You end up getting us stuck in a war in Iraq. Just ask President Bush.”<br /><br />What he said:<br />"You know education, if you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. And if you don't, you get stuck in Iraq."<br /><br />What they wrote for John Kerry to say at the Shriners Convention:<br />"What is this, an audience or an oil painting?"<br /><br />What he said:<br />"What's all this, this audience and its oral panting."<br /><br />What they wrote for John Kerry to say at the Ted Kennedy roast:<br />"But, seriously, Teddy, you've built bridges to new ideas all your life....<br /><br />What John Kerry said:<br />"But, seriously Teddy, all your life, there've been bridges, you see, and you have crossed most of them....with new ideas, I mean."<br /><br />What they wrote for John Kerry to say on the Jay Leno show:<br />"Jay, you are the only guy with a longer face than me!"<br /><br />What John Kerry said:<br />"How's your face, Jay? I mean, is it longer or not?"<br /><br />What they wrote for John Kerry to say at the Union League comedy night:<br />"Take my wife, please!"<br /><br />What John Kerry said:<br />"Please, Theresa's my wife. Take her!"<br /><br />What they wrote for John Kerry to say at the Gridiron dinner:<br />Two guys are out walking their dogs and pass by a bar.<br />One says: Let's go inside and get a drink<br />The other says: But look at that sign, it says no dogs allowed.<br />The friend says: Watch this. He puts on sunglasses and walks into the bar with his dog.<br />A few minutes later, the friend decides to try it.<br />He puts on sunglasses and walks into the bar with his dog.<br />He sees his friend sitting drinking a beer, with his German shepherd at his side.<br />He goes up and asks for a beer himself.<br />Bartender says: Sorry, pal, no dogs.<br />The guy says: It's my seeing-eye dog.<br />Bartender says: But that's a chihuahua.<br />The guy slaps his forehead and says: You mean, they gave me a Chihuahua!<br /><br />What John Kerry said:<br />"I have a joke that I hope you will find amusing. It's about two blind guys and they have a German shepherd, see, and the other has a Chihuahua.<br />At any rate, they are passing by a tavern. And they are wearing sunglasses, I think.<br />And one of them goes into the bar. Wait! Wait! I think the guys are not blind really. Yes, that's it. It's a ruse, you see. At any rate, they are thirsty and they want to drink a beer. Now, let me see, what happens next....Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1162387017126653922006-11-01T08:16:00.000-05:002006-11-03T09:50:49.906-05:00A Donald Segretti Moment<a href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/1600/Segretti.jpg"><img style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/320/Segretti.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><p>The mailings went out to homes all over the Philadelphia suburbs, apparently targeting areas known for support of Democratic candidates.</p><p>The <a href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/docs/ppc-mailer-4/">brochures</a> compared and contrasted the public stands of U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum and his Democratic opponent, Bob Casey Jr. The message was clear: on a number of hot-button issues, such as gay marriage, abortion, stem cell research and gun control, the two candidates hold similar positions. So why draw the contrast?</p><p>Well, the sponsor of the brochure was a group called the Progressive Policy Council, which stated it's mission iis to "advocate for progressive public policy solutions for contemporary social issues."</p><p></p><p>Still, for many recipients, it was a head scratcher. What was the point? Was this a liberal group urging progressives to sit out the election, rather than choose between Casey and Santorum -- implying there really was no difference between the two pols?</p><p>It sure looked that way, until people began scratching below the surface. For one thing, when people went to the web address listed on the brochure nothing was there (as of Monday). Later, notice went up saying, in so many words, <a href="http://www.progressivepolicycouncil.org/">"Watch This Space."</a></p><p>A check of clips turned up zero on the Progressive Policy Council. And I do mean zero. It's rare, to say the least, for a non-profit advocating policy to never, ever get a mention, especially since the brochure said it was headquartered in Arlington, Va. in the heart of the Beltway.</p><p>What is this ghost of an organization? Well, the sheet's been lifted, thanks to TPMMuckraker.com, a site sponsored by the Talking Points Memo. Reporter Paul KIel posted an <a href="http://www.tpmmuckraker.com/archives/001901.php">item</a> yesterday that disclosed that the person who filed for the corporate charter for the group in June was a guy named Jason Torchinsky. </p><p>Torchinsky is a lawyer with a mega-Washington law firm. But, more important, he is a former Bush-Cheney Campaign political operative. He was on the campaign's payroll in 2004. He is also involved, according to the clips, with the Voting Rights Legislation Fund, another Republican front group involved in ways to suppress voter turnout.<br />So, what we appear to have here is a Republican-financed phony mailing from a non-existent group seeking to suppress Democratic turnout. It's a dirty trick -- though that's the cleaned up version of what Donald Segretti and his merry pranksters called this kind of stuff. </p><p>They called it (explicit language alert) <em>ratfucking.</em></p>Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1162301897619612102006-10-31T08:23:00.000-05:002007-02-18T03:56:49.250-05:00Questions & Answers<a href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/1600/q&a.4.jpg"><img style="FLOAT: right; MARGIN: 0px 0px 10px 10px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/320/q%26a.3.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><br />Question: Who awards himself with a donut for every $100,000 he raises? <a href="http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/15889291.htm">Answer</a><br /><br />Question: Who was the first to discover that "finmeccanica" is an Italian phrase meaning "nepotism." <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/31/us/politics/31weldon.html">Answer</a><br /><br />Question: Is there any evidence that the residency issue is still bedeviling Rick Santorum ? <a href="http://www.ricksantorum.com/Multimedia/MMPlayer_Set.aspx?ID=1159&TypeID=1">Answer</a><br /><br />Question: Who got on a bus imediately afterwards and headed for Atlantic City? <a href="http://www.pennlive.com/news/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1162262415282160.xml&coll=1">Answer</a><br /><br />Question: What do you do when you are trialing in double digits and it's a week out from election day?<a href="http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06303/734085-177.stm"> Answer</a>Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1161870669037516542006-10-26T08:46:00.000-04:002007-03-28T06:22:37.216-04:00Inside the FishbowlWhen I was a kid reporter, the Editorial Board of the paper was strictly off limits.<br />It was on another floor. The Editorial Writers rarely mingled with reporters. Even when they did call -- usually to ask a mundane question about a story we did -- they began by offering their apologies for breaching the wall between the two departments.<br />This is the way is was meant to be. The Editorial Board dealt with Opinion. The reporters dealt with Facts. The same is true today. As a reporter, I have no business in trying to convince the board to take a certain position on an issue. In the same way, members of the Editorial Board have no business in trying to influence what stories I write or cover.<br />And it always exhibited itself at election time. Though you could never convince candidates of it, the two sides rarely communicated with each other. In fact, when candidates came to talk to the Board, it was strictly off-the-record and reporters were barred from the proceedings.<br />That Church-State separation remains true today, but the secrecy has melted away.<br />Now, when folks visit to talk to the Editorial Board, the sessions are on-the-record. Reporters on relevant beats get invited to sit in, free to report on the event in case any news erupts.<br />The new transparency is reflected in the architecture of the the board's meeting room. At The Inquirer, it is a large conference room with floor-to-ceiling windows facing the hallway and the main elevators on the 2nd floor of 400 North Board Street. They call it the fishbowl -- because it resembles one. In fact, they have decorated it with cloth and plastic fish, which hang from the ceiling. <div>This year the Editorial Board took a second step in opening up the process. It has taken to recording its candidate interviews and posting them on the web. Here is the<a href="http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/15679686.htm"><strong> home page</strong> </a>of the interviews posted so far.</div><div>The board has begun trying to get competing candidates to appear at the same time, so they can hold a face-to-face debate. So far, they got candidates in the three hottest congressional races in the Philly region to do it. </div><div>Theyturned out to be fairly meaty sessions, where the candidates are asked to discourse on a variety of issues. The sessions -- and the recordings -- often last for more than a hour.</div><div>A lot of what you hear, at least at the beginning are the standard stump speeches. But, then the questions begin and the back-and-forth can get fairly heated.</div><div>I encourage you to scan through them. For those of you who don't have the hours needed to listen to them in their totality, let me offer a brief highlights guide:</div><div></div><div>In the the <a href="http://inquirer.philly.com/rss/Editorial/CaseyPart11017.wma"><strong>1st installment</strong> </a>of the Bob Casey Jr. interview, go to minute 21:second 19 to hear him on the issue of immigration reform and slam Rick Santorum for being a hypocrite and fraud on the issue.</div><div>In <a href="http://inquirer.philly.com/rss/Editorial/CaseyPart21017.wma"><strong>Casey 2</strong></a>, hear him get passionate about Social Security, from minute 0 to about minute 5:00.</div><div>Hear a Q&A on his contradictory stands on wireless wiretapping from 5:11 through 9:00.</div><div>And, at 15:55 hear him answer this question: "Are you too mild-mannered to fight for Pennsylvania?</div><div></div><div>In <a href="http://inquirer.philly.com/rss/Editorial/SantorumPart11005.wma"><strong>Santorum 1</strong></a><strong>,</strong> hear him give a lucud exposition on the topic "Why I Deserve to Be Re-election," from 0:00 to 2:34. At 2:50, he launches into a seven-minute disquisition on Iraq, but seeks to make the case that Iran is the real threat. At around 9:00, he begins to talk about Islamofascism -- one of his favorite topics. Note: Casey & Santorum appeared before the board on different days.</div><div></div><div>In <a href="http://inquirer.philly.com/rss/editorial/rendell061002part1.wma"><strong>Rendell I</strong>, </a>he is asked to list some of his accomplishments at 0:00. He finally rolls to a stop at 21:16. Along the way, he bitches about how The Inquirer has failed to cover his many achievements. </div><div>In <a href="http://inquirer.philly.com/rss/editorial/rendell061002part2.wma"><strong>Rendell 2,</strong> </a>he is asked about the notorious and nefarious pay grab at 0:58 and he tells why he signed it and why he now thinks it is a mistake until about 5:00. At 5:40, he does a four-minute riff about how lousy the press is in reporting his achievements. (You may notice a trend here.)</div><div></div><div>In <a href="http://inquirer.philly.com/rss/editorial/rendell061002part1.wma"><strong>Swann 1,</strong></a> he makes his basic pitch on "Why You Should Vote for Me," from 0:00 through 4:20. The board then tells him Rendell's defense of the pay raise and he goes on a riff attacking the Governor for signing the bill from 4:20 for about three minutes. Note: Rendell & Swann appears before the board on different days. Also, at 18:15 through 23:47 Swann ends up boxing with the board over his property tax proposal.</div><div></div><div>In <a href="http://inquirer.philly.com/rss/Editorial/SwannPart21012.wma"><strong>Swann 2, </strong></a>he boxes with the board over violence and gun control and makes it clear he is pure NRA on all measures. This section lasts from 0:00 to about 8:10.</div><div></div><div>Some other highlights:</div><div>In <a href="http://inquirer.philly.com/rss/Editorial/GerlachMurphyPart21016.wma">Gerlach/Murphy II</a>, the two spar on their negative campaigns for about 5 minutes beginning at 18:55.</div><div>In <a href="http://inquirer.philly.com/rss/Editorial/WeldonSestakPart21012.wma">Weldon/Sestak II</a>, Weldon is asked about nepotism charges regarding his children at 0:00 and he defends himself up to 8:02. Sestak is then asked about charges that he's an abrasive S.O.B and he defends himself for about 6 minutes (He does go on. Sestak rarely wavered from his stump speech.) At 12:00 through 15:00, Weldon talks about his close ties to local pols, etc. and Sestak interrupts to call them "a bunch of bubbas" in the district. Weldon says, increduously: "Did you just call them bubbas?"</div><div>In <a href="http://inquirer.philly.com/rss/Editorial/SchwartzBhaktaPart21003.wma">Schwartz/Bhakta II</a>, Bhatka is asked about his playing the race card in the Northeast at 4:05 and he answers at length. At 30:25, he is asked about his various DUI's and his "maturity" and he boxes with the Editorial Board for four minutes.</div><div></div><div></div>Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1161783019490066052006-10-25T09:13:00.000-04:002006-10-27T02:34:02.466-04:00What's That Song I Hear?<a href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/1600/Taps.jpg"><img style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/400/Taps.jpg" border="0" /></a><br />Time to play Taps for U.S. Rep. Don Sherwood.<br />The latest <a href="https://email.phillynews.com/exchange/tferrick/Inbox/F%26M%20Politics%20Center:%20Keystone%20Poll%20release-2.EML/1_multipart_xF8FF_2_Keystonefinalrel10CDoct06.pdf/C58EA28C-18C0-4a97-9AF2-036E93DDAFB3/Keystonefinalrel10CDoct06.pdf?attach=1"><strong>Keystone Pol</strong></a><strong>l</strong> out today shows him trailing his Democratic opponent, Chris Carney, by 9 percentage points in Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District.<br />The problem isn't the margin in points. It's not impossible to make up the difference.<br />The problem is that voters in the district all know about Sherwood's extra-marital affair and they are judging him harshly for it. It's the issue that won't go away.<br />As Madonna told the <a href="http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/news/local/15841991.htm"><strong>Daily News</strong>:</a> "The affair is the single driving issue in the campaign. You can't reach any other conclusion."<br />The poll, conducted by Terry Madonna's crew at Franklin & Marshall College had a sample of 384 voters and a plus/minus margin of error of 5%.<br />There is no reason for Sherwood to lose PA10 -- were it not for the sex scandal. <br />This used to be U.S. Rep. Joe McDade's district, but it was redrawn in reapportionment to extract Democratic-leaning Scranton and add rural Republican communities along the northern tier. <br />It is resolutely Republican in its voting habits. If anyone wants further evidence of the GOP being in trouble with the voters, the Keystone Poll provides it.<br />For instance, 40% of the district's voters give President Bush a performance rating of "Poor." Another 23% say it is "Only Fair." If this were school, that would average out to a D-minus grade. Not good. <br />In the gubernatorial race, Ed Rendell is ahead of Lynn Swann 50%-36%, with 14% DNK.<br />Most of the undecideds are leaning towards Rendell. He could end up winning by 10 points here. Astonishing.<br />In the U.S. Senate race, Rick Santorum leads Bob Casey Jr. 46%-41%, with 13% DNK. Again, most of the undecides are leaning towards the Democrat. Translation: Casey could win PA10 or Santorum could take it by a hair. The Casey name is known up here -- but this should be an area of the state where Santorum is king.Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1161707308840532892006-10-24T11:56:00.000-04:002006-10-26T15:21:18.506-04:00Another Day, Another Poll<a href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/1600/Santorum%2010.jpg"><img style="FLOAT: right; MARGIN: 0px 0px 10px 10px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/400/Santorum%2010.jpg" border="0" /></a><br />This one is from McClatchy-MSNBC, sample size 650, and it tracks with the results of most of the public polls in recent weeks.<br />It shows Bob Casey 12 points up on Rick Santorum in the U.S. Senate race, Gov. Rendell with a 21-point lead over Lynn Swann.<br /><br />For the record, it was Casey 51% - Santorum 39% - 10% Undecided/Other<br />For the record, it was Rendell 56%- Swann 35% - 9% Undecided/Other<br /><br />Here is the <a href="http://www.centredaily.com/mld/centredaily/15835408.htm"><strong>poll story</strong></a>, as it ran in the Centre Daily Times. Here is a link to the <a href="http://www.realcities.com/multimedia/nationalchannel/news/KRT_Packages/archive/krwashington/POLL-Tues-PA.pdf"><strong>questionnaire.</strong> </a>And, for number freaks, here is are the <a href="http://www.centredaily.com/multimedia/centredaily/images/PACrossTabs10-06.pdf"><strong>tabs </strong></a>from the poll.<br />A couple of interesting numbers that illuminate Santorum's problem:<br />A huge gender gap. Women prefer Casey 52%-35%<br />Problems among independent voters, who favor Casey 54%-36%<br />He is losing the Pa. Burbs, 52%-35%.<br /><div>(Though I am always wary of regional breakdowns because of the small size of the sample.)</div><div>The margin of error in the poll overall is plus/minus 4%.</div><div></div><br />Speaking of which, the Santorum campaign is up with another (very clever) earth-tone Rick commercial called <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnfURvvNSI8"><strong>"Wrestling</strong></a>."Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1161613738773648012006-10-23T10:02:00.000-04:002006-10-24T13:42:37.436-04:00New & RecommendedThe <a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2414298,00.html"><strong>Times of London</strong> </a>dips into the Senate race in Pennsylvania and pronounces it a harbinger of a return of Reagan Democrats to the Democratic fold. It's a bit of a stretch to me, but it's worth reading.<br /><br />My colleague Carrie Budoff's profile of <a href="http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/15816458.htm"><strong>Rick Santorum</strong> </a>in the Sunday Inquirer. And Tom Fitzgerald's profile of <a href="http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/15822585.htm">Bob Casey Jr</a>. in the same paper on the same day. A great headline over these pieces: <em>The Megaphone Meets the Metronome.</em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/cityregion/s_476253.html"><strong>Brad Bumstead's piece</strong> </a>in the Tribune-Review indicates the Republicans are worried that they may lose control of the state House. These local elections don't get much attention in the media, so it's good to see this analysis.<br /><br />A piece in the <a href="http://www.nysun.com/article/42019"><strong>New York Sun</strong>,</a> of all places, about a Republican mailing that blames Chris Carney for starting the Iraq War. Carney is the Democrat opposing the mistress-impaired U.S. Rep. Don Sherwood in PA10. The mailing signals a new shrillness in the race, probably due to the fact that Sherwood is down (and appears nearly out) in recent public polls.<br /><br />A piece by <a href="http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06295/731749-109.stm"><strong>Dennis Roddy</strong> </a>of the Post-Gazette on Curt Weldon, an essay on the congressman's tendency of lurching towards "the dark corners of conjecture." (also known as the Wacko Factor.)<br /><br />My colleague <a href="http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/15825029.htm"><strong>Mario Cattabiani</strong> </a>has a nice piece in today's Inquirer about Lynn Swann's days as a Pittsburgh Steeler. Short sum: His former teammates love the guy, but some of them just don't see him as governor.<br /><br />Finally, a link to the weekly <a href="http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/local/15575072.htm">Pennsy Political Podcast</a>, which has a take off on Santorum's latest TV commercial, "Bicker," where he pronounces himself a fighter.Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1161610234117402222006-10-23T09:25:00.000-04:002006-10-23T09:30:34.150-04:00Become a Pundit, Win A Prize<a href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/1600/Political%20Pundit.14.jpg"><img style="FLOAT: right; MARGIN: 0px 0px 10px 10px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/320/Political%20Pundit.7.jpg" border="0" /></a><br />A reminder of my Pundit Contest.<br />Pick the winners of the statewide races in the Nov. 7th election and become a certified Political Pundit, plus win a $25 gift card to Borders.<br />In order to win, here is what you must do:<br /><br />1. Correctly predict the winners of Pennsylvania's Nov. 7th election for Governor & U.S. Senate and list the percentage of votes each candidate gets. (For the record, the candidates for governor at Democrat Ed Rendell and Republican Lynn Swann; the candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat Bob Casey Jr. and Republican Rick Santorum<br />2. As a tiebreaker, you must also predict the exact number of votes, rounded to the nearest thousand, that will be cast statewide in the race for U.S. Senate, which is the race that tops the ballot this year. (For the record, there are about 8 million registered voters in in Pennsylvania.)<br /><br />Sample Entry:<br /><em>Tom: I want to be a pundit!</em><br /><em>Here is my prediction for the Nov. 7th election:</em><br /><em>Bob Casey Jr. -- 54% of the vote Rick Santorum - 46%</em><br /><em>Ed Rendell -- 58% Lynn Swann - 42% </em><br /><em>Total votes cast: 3,773,000</em><br /><br />The deadline is 11:59 p.m., Monday, Nov. 6th. Do not submit your entry via a posting. Send it to my email address: <a href="mailto:tferrick@phillynews.com">tferrick@phillynews.com</a> Include your name and address.<br />The winner will be announced in this space at noon, Wednesday, Nov. 8th. The vote total will be based upon the latest Associated Press count as of 11 a.m. that day.<br /><br />Don't miss this opportunity to become a pundit. Email your entry today!Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25702239.post-1161354776881113842006-10-20T09:31:00.000-04:002006-10-20T12:52:10.856-04:00More Mother's Milk<a href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/1600/dollars%20bills%203.0.jpg"><img style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6691/2679/320/dollars%20bills%203.0.jpg" border="0" /></a> As Jessie Unruh said, money is the mother's milk of politics.<br />Well, mommy sure has been pumping it out this year.<br />To date, the candidates for congress, governor and U.S. Senate have spent a total of <strong>$73 million</strong> in Pennsylvania.<br />But wait, there's more.<br />They had $38 million left to spend in the final weeks of the 2006 fall campaign.<br />By Nov. 7th, election spending by these candidates should exceed $111 million.<br />And that doesn't include the money being spent on behalf of candidates by party committees and various soft-money groups, a figure which I expect will total another $10 million, most of it going directly into television.<br />Nor does it include the millions being spent for state House and state Senate races, which I estimate will top $12 million this year.<br />Estimated grand total, when all is said and done, probably <strong>$130 to $140 million</strong>. It will average out to about $35 for each voter who shows up on Election Day. And that's a conservative estimate.<br /><br />The most expensive race, not surprisingly, is the contest between U.S. Sen. <a href="http://herndon1.sdrdc.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/?_06+S4PA00063"><strong>Rick Santorum</strong> </a>and <a href="http://herndon1.sdrdc.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/"><strong>Bob Casey Jr.</strong></a> The two candidate have spent $31 million so far, and had a total of $7 million on hand as of Sept. 30th. As of that same date, Santorum had outspent Casey $18.8 million to $11.2 million, but the yield on the extra $7.7 million Santorum spent has been poor. He has yet to break 40% in most of the head-to-head public opinion polls.<br /><br />The most lopsided race, in terms of money and (most likely)in votes, is the race for governor. As of Sept. 18th, the two candidates had spent a total of $16.7 million and they had $17 million on hand to spend in the final seven weeks. But those totals are deceptive. Incumbent <a href="http://www.campaignfinance.state.pa.us/CFReport.aspx?CFReportID=45348&Section=Cover"><strong>Gov. Ed Rendell</strong></a> ($12.6 million) has outspent Republican<strong> </strong><a href="http://www.campaignfinance.state.pa.us/CFReport.aspx?CFReportID=45428&Section=Cover"><strong>Lynn Swann</strong> </a>($4.1 million) by a margin of 3-1. Rendell has enough on hand to continue that pace. As of the latest report, he had $13.7 million in his campaign account, compared to $3.7 million for Swann. Another spending report is due next Friday.<br /><br />The most expensive Congressional race so far has been in PA6, the Montco-Bucks-Chesco-Berks district where incumbent Republican <strong>Jim Gerlach</strong> faces Democrat <strong>Lois Murphy</strong>. The two had spent a total of $3.7 million as of 9-30, and had $2 million left. This is one race where the spending is even: Murphy has matched Gerlach dollar for dollar. This is also a race where the party committees are likely to match candidate spending in the final weeks. Here is OpenSecret.org's <a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.asp?cycle=2006&id=PA06">PA6 summary</a>.<br /><br />Close behind, we have the race in the Bucks-centered PA8 between incumbent U.S. Rep. <strong>Mike Fitzpatrick</strong> and challenger <strong>Pat Murphy</strong>. They had spent $3.2 million as of 9-30. This is one district where the challenger had the money edge going into the final weeks. Democrat Murphy had $632,000 on hand on 9-30, compared to Fitzpatrick's $446,000. Here is a <a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.asp?cycle=2006&id=PA08">PA8 summary</a>.<br /><br />Finally, we have the Delco-centered PA7, where incumbent U.S. Rep. <strong>Curt Weldon</strong> faces Democrat <strong>Joe Sestak</strong>. As of 9-30, the two had spent $2. million and had $2.6 million left, with a slight edge to Sestak. One must wonder, though, whether word of the federal investigation into Weldon's daughter and political associate Charlie Sexton will make who spends what in the final weeks irrelevant. Here is a <a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.asp?cycle=2006&id=PA07">PA7 summary.</a><br /><br />In PA10, which spreads across a multitude of counties in the state's northeast tier, incumbent U.S. Rep <strong>Don Sherwood</strong> ($1.2 million) has outspent his Democratic opponent <strong>Chris Carney</strong> (660,000) by a margin of 2-1. But this may be another example of where money cannot buy happiness. Sherwood is being dragged down by his (admitted) extra-marital affair and his (denied) abuse of his mistress. Here is the <a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.asp?cycle=2006&id=PA10">PA10 summary.</a><br /><br />Two other races of note:<br /><br /><strong>-- </strong>In PA12, in the state's southwest, warhorse U.S. Rep. <strong>John Murtha</strong> is facing a challenge from Republican warhawk <strong>Diana Irey</strong>. Conervative Republicans hope to punish Murtha for his outspoken criticism of the Bush administration's handling of the Iraq War. But, it will be hard for Orey to gain traction without more money. So far, Murtha has outspent her 5-1. Here is a <a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.asp?cycle=2006&id=PA12">PA12 summary</a>.<br />-- In PA13, which straddles Northeast Philly and Montco, freshman U.S. Rep. <strong>Allyson Schwartz</strong> faces the unitentionally hilarious <strong>Raj Bhakta</strong>. It's no content when he comes to money. Schwartz ($1.7 million) has outspent Bhatka ($352,000) by a margin of 5-1. Here is the latest <a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.asp?cycle=2006&id=PA13">PA13 summary</a>.<br /><br />If your favorite congressional race was omitted, go to <a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/states/election.asp?State=PA&year=2006"><strong>OpenSecrets.org</strong> </a>for details.Tom Ferrick Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01196535072852918957noreply@blogger.com1