Place Your Bets
Most of politics, including this blog, is nothing but talk, talk, talk. So let's take a reality check and ask the people who put their money where their mouth is. I'm talking bettors. My colleague Andy Cassel pointed this site out. It's a blog called Econbrowser. Its latest posting shows where bettors are putting their money when it comes to control of the U.S. House and Senate. (To sum up, the money is trending Democratic.) Most of the betting is done on a site called Tradesports, which offers this chart of bets on the U.S. Senate race in PA.
It's not clear enough to see details, but you catch the drift. The statement that goes along with this chart is: Republican Party candidate to win the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania.
Postscript: For more political charts, go to Tradesports, click on politics and use the search engine. This site doesn't use names that much, mostly races. Try Pennsylvania as a search term.
posted by Tom Ferrick Jr. at 8:03 AM
6 Comments:
Another poll cited by the Morning Call involves the Senate race. On that, they have Casey's lead down to 5 points. What are your thoughts on that? I have to believe that the polling on both is somehow "off". Rendell doesn't win by 20 but Casey leads by more than 5 (considering Santorum can't break 40% approval.)
Only Santorum haters would be rabid enough to go find a site like that and bet against him.
I think Rendell wins big and could get 20%. I am a Chester County republican and the more I listen to Swann (once in person), the more convimced I am that he is a lightweight that is totally clueless. I have issues with Rendell but he is clearly superior to Swann in every catagory.
FWIW, there was a big discussion of the "betting markets" on their predictive power about election over at MyDD. I agree completely with
Bowers' point that these "markets" really don't predict anything except what the conventional wisdom is at the moment.
Another poll came out today showing Santorum in teh 30's and trailing by double digits. It looks like Santorum is down. HOw far down we can dispute. Being an incumbent and down means you lose.
Check out this finding from the Casey -Santorum Rassmussen poll:
"Santorum is trying to overcome a basic structural challenge in the state--50% of the Keystone State’s voters would select a Democrat if they thought control of the Senate hinged on their vote. Just 40% would vote for GOP control."
Half of the voters polled think the issue of who controls the Senate is important enough to make them vote for a Democrat. If these voters carry that thought process all the way down the ballot, it's going to be a very bad, horrible, terrible,
awful day for the GOP on Nov 7th.
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