So Many Questions
Are these the last days of John Perzel?
Could the House Speaker be the next one to fall to the forces that already have defeated his Senate counterpart, President Pro Tem Bob Jubelirer?
That's the intriguing question rasied by my colleague, Mario Cattabiani, in a piece that ran Sunday in The Inquirer. There's lots of evidence to indicate that the Speaker could be in jeopardy.
And, if Perzel is going down -- not now, not in November, but after the fall election, when it comes time to reorganize the state House -- what do you do if you are a Democrat?
First of all, I bet that Perzel survives.
His caucus may be going more conservative, but the Philadelphia Republican is politically skilled and probably has enough chits out amongst his members to to hold onto his job.
Besides, you can't beat a someone with a no one -- and a strong, alternative candidate to Perzel has yet to emerge.
But, a weakened Perzel could make life miserable for Ed Rendell in his second term. Hamstrung by his own caucus, Perzel might have to go anti-Rendell all the time in order to maintain his job as Speaker.
The Senate Republicans -- with the departure of Jubelirer and GOP Majority Leader Chip Brightbill -- look like they are going to tilt to the right and make life (even more) miserable for the governor.
Let's face it, the Speaker is often the only Republican who seems willing to deal with Rendell. (A point often raised by his enemies within the caucus).
So, what do you do if you are Rendell?
Do you work hard to have the Democrats take over the House? They are 8 seats away from becoming a majority, so it wouldn't be easy. But you could direct money and political support to those districts in contention and make it a holy cause.
Do you concentrate on your own campaign and let the chips fall where they may in the legislative races? Rendell did a variation on that two years ago, when he refused to lift a finger to support Democrats running against Republican incumbents who supported his first tax plan and budget.
Do you want no Perzel or a weakened Perzel?
Do you want to live through the agony of four more years of having both chambers controlled by a more conservative Republican party?
With your own re-election looking secure, do you seize the moment and go after control of at least one chamber of the legislature?
So many questions, so little time.
posted by Tom Ferrick Jr. at 11:51 AM
9 Comments:
There is a really simple answer. Gov. Rendall will run for his office. He will run as hard as if he was ten points behind. He will give little or no thought to the legislature because he does not want to be linked to the anger that is directed towards this and the further away he stays from activily particpating in the legislatuive election, the less chance of that happening.
If Perzel wants to keep his job in the state house, he can't start picking fights with Rendell. They serve the same base constituency.
I think what Perzel can do is build a majority coalition with Democrats and pragmatic Republicans from the east.
That would punish the conservative reactionaries and keep Perzel in his role as a "player".
Good idea Phillydem. That is what most more moderate (pragmatic is really a synonym here) republicans should do in the short term at least to maintain some position in their party. Problem is if they do that they face strong challenges form the conservative base of the party like Toomey's run at Arlan. Pragmatic as he claims to be Perzel likes his leaderhip position more and look for him to tack right a la our Senior Senator.
Ed will do what he can -- robo phone calls, posing for mailers, joint appearances whenever possible -- but in State House races, it's going to be more about how hard the local organization can work. Repub voters in the suburbs are going to stay away from the polls in droves this November; it then becomes a question of whether Democratic committeepeople can get their side motivated to show up. And with a chance to get rid of Rick Santorum, that should be fairly easy.
Bottom line -- between pay-raise fallout and an unhappy base, I say the GOP loses its State House majority.
It'll be interesting to watch.
That's a pretty confident prediction, Mark. I hope it comes true.
yeah, from your lips...
While I'd love to see Kearney win, IMO unseating Perzel, especially in his redrawn district, is an uphill battle. As long as Perzel can keep building community centers in Mayfair and getting $6000 radar speed detectors to sit outside St Matt's he's going to be hard to beat.
I know Kearney only moved into the district a few months before he ran in 2004 and has been out knocking on doors since then introducing himself.
IIRC, Tim was councilman Cohen's chief of staff. Cohen was very popular up here in the NE and I wonder if having Florence Cohen campaign with him wouldn't
be a help as far as getting media
attention goes.
Mark - I'll believe it when I see it. The Republicans did some necessary bloodletting, as Caesar would say: they bled the Senate for its own good. The Democrats, are every bit in need of the loss of pints, half-wits and payjackers(DeWeese, Veon, Fumo, etc...), but haven't so much as pricked a finger. I wouldn't be surprised to see the GOP hold onto the House. I just hope Perzel isn't the one still in charge there when the dust clears. You can read more about his shennanigans in my Daily Rant today.
Perzel has been a blight on Pennsylvania politics, and Mr. Ferrick is incorrect about there being no substantial candidate to replace him as speaker. SOmetime in the next week or two, there may come a move to oust Perzel from that spot, and replace him with Paul Clymer.
Rep. Cohen is correct about next January, however.
The Republicvans are split, and no amount of Tom Ridge campaiging will bring the reformers back into the fold.
It needs to work the other way around. The State Republican Committee needs to come to the reformers.
That, of course, will not happen until after the November Republican gotterdammerung.
In the meantime, where are the Democratic REformers? The world wonders!
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