Wednesday, July 19, 2006

By The Numbers


My post yesterday on how Ed Rendell performed in 2002 in his home base generated email queries and complaints about how I was giving only part of the picture.

The gist of the comments were: Why focus only on southeastern Pa., which is where Lynn Swann faces his biggest challenge? Why not point out where Swann has a chance of winning.

The answer to that question is obvious:

The part of the state where Swann can and should do better is the Pittsburgh media market. Rendell's numbers there are negative-to-soft. The glitter associated with Swann's background as a Steeler is brightest. But, can Swann win that market?

To help you answer that question, here is more information about how Rendell's 2002 opponent, Attorney General Mike Fisher, performed in the state's media markets. You can play with the numbers and try to figure out where Swann can and must do better. The registration figures are from November 2002.

Media Mrkt....Fisher.....%%%....Rendell....%%%....Others...%%%

Erie..................65,469......56%........46,752...40%.........3,881......3%

Harrisburg....322,079......63%......186,609..35%.......13,200....2%

Johnstown....135,307.......61%........81,858....37%.........4,787.....2%

Other...............57,658.......63%........32,343....35%.........1,692....2%

Philadlphia....439,132......30%......995,113.....68%.......24,658...3%

Pittsburgh....384,986......44%......400,605....50%.......21,437....3%

WB/Scrn.......174,477......49%.......169,995.....48%......10,470....3%

Total...........1,589,408.....44%...1,913,235......53%......70,346....3%

Rendell Margin over Fisher = 323,827

Note: The media market listed as "Other" consists of 5 counties whose primary television station is in another state. The counties are: Franklin, McKean, Mercer, Potter, Tioga.

The state's largest market is Philadelphia, where 41% of the state's voters live, followed by Pittsburgh (24%) and Harrisburg-Lancaster-York (14%), Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (10%), Johnstown-Altoona (6%), Erie and Other (3% each)

8 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

As long as the media continues to give Rendell a pass, his numbers will be big.

-- Media Watcher

10:48 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The media is giving him a pass? Do you read the newspapers across the state? Check out the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review sometime. Their hatred for the Governor could not be more transparent.

2:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ok, Re-phrase:

As long as the Philadelphia media market, the largest in the state, and where the largest number of voters live (according to super-blogger Ferrick) continues to media-darling Ed Rendell a pass, his numbers will be big.

Ed rendell lies and cheats, yet the newspapers barely mentions his negatives.

It is almost daily that they mention the legislative pay raise that Ed Rendell first brought up, encouraged, signed, defended -- then backed out.

The Ed Rendell legacy: Higher taxes, minimum wage jobs (OK, he got a higher minimum wage, but the cost has been better-paying jobs with health care), minimal property tax relief (NOT), and expanded gambling for that minimal property tax relief (NOT yet).

-- Media Watcher

6:53 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

One further point. The Ed Rendell media friends continue to give the Rendell campaign an in-kind contribution by constantly saying that Lynn Swann is not qualified.

Since he has not been a professional politician, he will never be qualified enough for the media. I suppose neither wiould about 12 million other Pennsylvanians, regardless of their constitutional qualifications.

The media is santimonious, biased and two-faced (no-offense Mr. Ferrick, at least you are a columnist and are open about it) and they will ensure a Rendell victory.

-- Media Watcher

9:21 AM  
Anonymous Pragmatist said...

PS Swan isn't qualified.

4:38 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, Media Watcher, if those 12 million other Pennsylvanians had the same fragile grasp of policy issues that Swann has demonstrated, I'd hesitate to vote for them as well, constitutional qualifications be damned.

5:22 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And that would be your right. That is the point of the vote in an election. But the media has taken on a role in deciding for the people. They don't present the candidates or issues anymore.

Heck, in today's Inquirer, they give a headline to Rendell's campaign press secretary.

-- Media Watcher

6:18 AM  
Anonymous Tim Dugan said...

With conservative Republicans, is being a former Steeler enough for them to vote for a Black?

9:14 AM  

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