Monday, July 17, 2006

Reality Check II

Second in a periodic update on cash on hand in selected races around the state.

No new gubernatorial numbers are available. You'll have to check my last post for those figures. The last filing for Ed Rendell and Lynn Swann was early June, but federal candidates had a filing deadline of Saturday and their numbers are beginning to show up on FEC and other web sites.

Still missing, the official Casey & Santorum numbers, though both campaigns released their totals over the weekend.

Here is the money candidates had on hand as of June 30th, according to official reports.

* = Incumbent

Race - U.S. Senate

Rick Santorum * (R) $9,500,000
Bob Casey (D) $5,200,00
Note: Ratio 1.8-1. These totals were supplied by the campaigns. Santorum is clearly the Republican's best fundraiser. He has to be. He has a tough race in one of the biggest states. So far, he has been up to the challenge. He raised $3.6 million in the second quarter and has raised a total of $20.1 million so far in the campaign. Casey has raised a total of $10.8 million so far and raised $2.8 million in the last quarter.

Race - U.S. House

6th District
Jim Gerlach * (R) $1,302,975
Lois Murphy (D) $1,402,793
Note: Ratio 1-1. Murphy has pulled ahead in cash on hand. Her theory is: she lost her race by a few points last time because Gerlach had more money to spend. She was determined not to let it happen in 2006. So far, she has met her goal.

7th District
Curt Weldon * (R) $1,152,012
Joe Sestak (D) $ 999,999
Note: Ratio 1-1. Sestak's filing was not posted as of today. His figure is an estimate given by his campaign. If money talks, the Sestak campaign is shouting. Last report, Weldon had twice as much cash on hand as his Democratic challenger. Now, the former admiral appears to have pulled close to even.

8th District
Mike Fitzpatrick * (R) $1,133,180
Patrick Murphy (D) $ 495,236
Note: Ratio 2.2-1. Murphy has picked up the pace in fundraising this quarter. At the end of the last quarter, he was 4-1 behind the Republican incumbent in cash on hand.

10th District
Don Sherwood * (R) $479,134
Chris Carney (D) $301,245
Note: Ratio: 1.5-1. Very bad news for the incumbent, already wounded by charges that he slapped around his mistress. His ratio of cash on hand was 6-1 in the last report, now the Democratic challenger appears to be pulling close to even.

13th District
Allyson Schwartz * (D) $1,491,237
Raj Bhakta (R) $ 28,352
Note: Ratio 52-1. Wipeout.

When it comes to U.S. House races, Schwartz is 2nd in the state in the cash-on-hand category.

The champion is U.S. Rep. John Murtha, Democratic incumbent in the 12th District.
As of June 30, Murtha had $1.8 million cash on hand. His opponent, Washington County Commissioner Diana Iray had $159,138 -- an 11-1 ratio in favor of Murtha.

10 Comments:

Anonymous looking italian said...

Sestak has $993,746 cash on hand.


Sestak 2Q

One related note: Sestak and Patrick Murphy both overstated the margin by which they outraised their respective opponents last quarter. Sestak and Murphy compared their total 2Q receipts to the figures included in Curt Weldon's and Mike Fitzpatrick's July quarterly FEC reports. However, those reports include receipts only from April 27 through June 30. When receipts from the first 26 days of the quarter are added, the margins are much closer:

Sestak - $702,014
Weldon - $651,861

Murphy - $452,299
Fitzpatrick - $399,674

On the other hand, Fitzpatrick made it sound like his campaign has already purchased $500K in television advertising during the fall. While an arrangement to "claim" that ad time may have been made, no specific TV advertising expenditure appears in his FEC report, and his cash on hand figure does not reflect such an expenditure being made.

Even setting the question of the TV time aside, Fitzpatrick's 2Q burn rate (expenditure to receipt ratio - 1.82:1) is very high. Of course, he has a ton to burn.

And Fitzpatrick's burn rate still isn't close to that of the always humorous Raj Bhakta (2.76:1). If he has decided to give up on raising money, he might want to give up spending it like a drunken sailor on upper level staff and consultants. And of all the people to pay $6000 per month, he couldn't find anyone more qualified than Maria Boren, his serial-blinking "Apprentice 2" colleague?

1:25 PM  
Blogger AJ Lynch said...

Tom:
with all due respect, you spend way too much time on who has how much money.
Give us as much time, energy and and info on where these troglodytes stand on the issues.

2:09 PM  
Blogger AJ Lynch said...

Got it? Tell us what their platform is and if they don't have a platform, mock them for it.

2:10 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Looking Italian has it wrong. I haven't followed the Fitzpatrick campaign, but Sestak didn't screw up on saying how much Weldon raised.

Weldon did.

Or rather, his attack puppy Puppio.

Here's the direct quote from the Inquirer article of July 11:

"By contrast, Weldon raised $400,000, said the Republican's campaign manager, Michael V. Puppio Jr."

Apparently, even his own campaign can't get the story straight.

Put the incompetence where it belongs, squarely on the incompetent incumbent.

6:39 AM  
Blogger asdgsfd said...

It's gratifyong to see that Sestak's doing well. Delco is about to go from a Republican stronghold to the naturally Democratic district it is. It's been going blue for president and governor since the early nineties. With Sestak and state candidates like Bryan Lentz, an Iraq war veteran running for state house, Dems are going to take it back in '06.

Also, if you have some spare time, check out Citizens for Lentz, a new blog about Lentz and Delco politics.

9:52 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with aj lynch. It's a sad day when we follow campaign money like a horse race (which it probably is) and assume that whomever has more money's going to win.

Ok, so that's pretty much the way it is, but it should change. Informing people about where these guys/gals stand on the issues will help.

9:53 AM  
Blogger ACM said...

I think that most people watching things this far ahead already have some sense of the stances of the candidates (or at least, of some of their big differences) or are willing to check the websites. The big push of information to most voters starts a bit closer to the election, say September. Non-hobbyists don't want to spend more than a few weeks making up their minds (in my experience), and that's not unreasonable.

Of course, I wouldn't turn aside candidate profiles and issue comparisons, but that information is out there (see, e.g., here or here (or here), while this is brand new. So there's room for both at this point.

Just my two cents, of course.

2:43 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Aren't those blogs all run by the tools from youngphillypolitics.com?

9:52 AM  
Blogger AJ Lynch said...

ACM, a liberal dem, thinks he is so clever leaving links to his favorite liberal dems.

And yes anonymous, you are right. Tools is an apt name for the "progressive young morons".

10:43 AM  
Blogger NE Suburbanite said...

Speaking for the 13th U.S. Congressional District, which I'm very familiar with, in a race such as this where the candidates actually have faces, how much money they have in their campaign war chests really isn't that important, just so long as their name is on the ballot and people know who they are. And while Schwartz might have a lot of union voters on her side -- the whole political machine thang -- we must keep in mind that due to the City Charter residency requirement, a lot of those union members who can vote for her have to weigh into their vote where they're living to. For if she gets reelected that will very much be at stake. And who in their right mind wants to vote for a candidate that supports proposals that will render the value of their residences worthless? And in Northeast Philadelphia Schwartz supports two such proposals -- one being the Fox Chase Cancer Center's insane quest to expand onto Burholme Park (which is illegal), and the other being the current plan for developing Independence Pointe alongside the Delaware. For those who aren't familiar with the latter, the plan pulls out all stops in exploiting every single flaw in FEMA there is to the max. That is, it is deliberately designed poorly to insure that it will have to be rebuilt from time to time. While unscrupulous builders clearly love this strategy, that's your taxdollars, folks! Every time it rains prolongedly as it did several weeks ago. Add to this the huge strain a development of this extent at that location will place on the city at large not to mention all the residential areas near to it. Meaning it's to be even more money, that at the local level, being wasted. Only a total idiot would not blow the whistle on it. But hey, that's Allyson Schwartz for ya!

3:19 AM  

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