Friday, May 12, 2006

The Quinnipiac Blues, Vol. 2

Yesterday, it was Rick Santorum's turn in the barrel.

Today, it is Lynn Swann's.

A Quinnipiac University poll released today shows that Gov. Edn Rendell currently holds a 22-point lead over his Republican rival. That's up from a 10-point lead in the last Quinnipiac taken in early April.

More significantly, Rendell's approval numbers have consistently stayed above 50%, even though his head-to-head numbers vs. Swann have fluctuated.

Asked whether they approved or disapproved of Rendell:
It was 51% approve vs. 35% disapprove in a December poll.
It was 55% approve vs. 31% disapprove in the May poll.

Head-to-head it was:
Rendell 48% vs. Swann 35% in December.
Rendell 47% vs. Swann 37% in April.
Rendell 55% vs. Swann 33% in the latest poll, taken in the first week of May.

What does it mean? Very bad news for Swann.

People need a compelling reason to oust an incumbent. The Republican challenger, with his sputtering campaign, hasn't given them one. It looks like his chance to do so may be slipping away.

The Ferrick Commission has pondered this race and has some advice for Swann.


Anonymous shopsteward24 said...

Prediction: Rendell will crush Swann in November if for no other reason that many R's will probably sit this one out. A lot of people in this state are angry that Swann was literally handed the nomination. Scranton most likely would have beat him badly in a primary.
Swann has yet to vocalize an opinion on much of anything except his stances on gay marriage and abortion - both of which could alienate him with swing voters. Outside of that, his campaign seems to revolve around the premise that Rendell has failed to deliver on property tax reform. Given the punitive disposition of the current joke of a legislature who were forced to give back their unconstitutional payraise because of widespread ridicule and it's easy to see why. Add to this that Jim Matthews now wants to make PA a smoke-free state and you've alienated a sizeable chunk of your blue collar folks in the more conservative areas of the state who cherish their local watering holes and their Marlboro's.

God, I can't wait for the debates!!!! I'm really curious to see if Swann will be able to answer questions or will he have to get back to us later on that, or better yet, spit out an answer that displays his complete lack of knowledge of anything related to government. This one could get bloodier than Rizzo & Castille--and possibly more entertaining.

6:58 PM  

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