Friday, May 05, 2006

Newton Was Right


For every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction.

In an April 21 post, I posited that the Rendell campaign was trying to create a Newtonian moment by going up early with a flight of major commercials in the state's major media markets.

The idea was to improve his numbers vis a vis Republican Lynn Swann, thereby making it more difficult for Swann to raise the money he needs to run a credible campaign against the Democratic incumbent.

The ads had the desired effect. The latest Keystone Poll (done by the Terry Madonna shop at Franklin & Marshall) shows that Rendell's lead has jumped to 14 ponts.

In February, in the same poll, Rendell had only a 3-point lead.

In May, the Keystone poll said, it was Rendell 49% Swann 35%, with 13% undecided and 3% saying they like independent Russ Diamond.

The February Keystone was taken right after Swann got the endorsement of Republican State Committee, and he probably got a pop from the publicity surrounding his candidacy.

The May Keystone was taken in the midst of the Rendell campaign ad blitz (said to cost more than $1 million).

The important thing here is not to concentrate too much on the numbers -- which will jump and weave and bob month to month, poll to poll -- but on the overall trends. Is the race narrowing or widening? Which candidate has remained in the lead? Is his favorable rating rising or falling?

By the way, in my April posting, I featured Isaac Newton.

In the interests of equal time, this posting features the most famous Newton -- Wayne.

5 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the sitting governor has toi run a massive ad campaign against his future challenger 8 months before teh election, what does that say?

In politics, that means weakness. Fast Eddy is trying to derail Swann now because once he gets his campaign rolling on issues, Eddy has real problems. The strategy could work except for something the polss in this state never seem to get. If the issue is emotional, the numbers are meaningless. To many people, the governor's race is going to be an emotional issue. The philadelphia region is different that the rest of the state on a lot of issues and no one west of west chester trusts philadelpoha politicians. Fast Eddy was lucky 4 years ago: he ran against one of the living dead. This year he has to run with a track record that is hard to defend and against someone who actual can respond. It is in truth something he has never faced in his political career. Maybe that is why the panic button was hit in February.

10:13 AM  
Anonymous YT said...

Anon,

You are living in a fantasy world.

What issue will Swann beat Rendell on? Tougher penalties for pass interference?

He is spending money now, because he has it. He is out raising Swann by a huge margin, and only true sycophants would turn over the highest office in the state to a former athelete turned sports comentator who has never held office in his life just because he puts an R after his name.

The Repubs bailed on this race before it started, they will put up a strong candidate when they don't have to run him against an incumbant.

10:35 AM  
Anonymous metroblue said...

If nobody outside the Philadelphia region trusts Philly politicians it usually has more to do with their stereotypes and prejudices against the "big city" and less to do with the quality of its leaders.

Nobody is hitting the panic button. The Governor has a comfortable lead and a large war chest, and he is spending it to help out ALL democrats across the state (notice there is a primary soon?).

12:09 PM  
Anonymous HospitalityGirl said...

Do you think anonymous works for John Perzel? Come on, get real, the only reason "Fast Eddie" is spending is because he can. And he is doing something for the rest of Pennsylvania that he did for Philadelphia after Wilson Goode's reign--give the State some hope. The State of Pennsylvania would rank somewhere down below Mississippi if it wasn't for the revenues from Philadelphia and the surrounding areas.

3:27 PM  
Blogger Mark Rauterkus said...

There are a bunch of us hitting the panic button. I'm not saying that the sky is falling. But, we were hitting the button about our schools, about our city (pittsburgh) and about our parks, and about our neighborhoods with slots yet to arrive. We have been hitting the button on the corporate give-a-ways.

8:02 PM  

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