Newton Was Right
For every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction.
In an April 21 post, I posited that the Rendell campaign was trying to create a Newtonian moment by going up early with a flight of major commercials in the state's major media markets.
The idea was to improve his numbers vis a vis Republican Lynn Swann, thereby making it more difficult for Swann to raise the money he needs to run a credible campaign against the Democratic incumbent.
The ads had the desired effect. The latest Keystone Poll (done by the Terry Madonna shop at Franklin & Marshall) shows that Rendell's lead has jumped to 14 ponts.
In February, in the same poll, Rendell had only a 3-point lead.
In May, the Keystone poll said, it was Rendell 49% Swann 35%, with 13% undecided and 3% saying they like independent Russ Diamond.
The February Keystone was taken right after Swann got the endorsement of Republican State Committee, and he probably got a pop from the publicity surrounding his candidacy.
The May Keystone was taken in the midst of the Rendell campaign ad blitz (said to cost more than $1 million).
The important thing here is not to concentrate too much on the numbers -- which will jump and weave and bob month to month, poll to poll -- but on the overall trends. Is the race narrowing or widening? Which candidate has remained in the lead? Is his favorable rating rising or falling?
By the way, in my April posting, I featured Isaac Newton.
In the interests of equal time, this posting features the most famous Newton -- Wayne.